Understanding how criminals think isn’t about sympathizing with them—it’s about gaining the upper hand. When we learn to recognize patterns in attacker behavior and victim selection, we can anticipate threats, harden our defenses, and enhance both our personal safety and the security of our communities.
This isn’t abstract theory—it’s hard-earned insight backed by FBI crime data, behavioral science, and the powerful observations of experts like Gavin de Becker.
The Predator’s Interview: How Attackers Select Their Victims
One of the most powerful concepts in personal security comes from Gavin de Becker’s The Gift of Fear. According to de Becker, attackers often conduct a subtle, non-verbal “interview” to assess whether someone will make an easy target. They look for signs of vulnerability, distraction, and low situational awareness.
This interview isn’t always overt—but it often includes key Pre-Incident Indicators (PINS). These are behavioral red flags that can signal a developing threat.
🟥 PINS to Watch For (as outlined by de Becker):
Forced Teaming: The attacker creates a false sense of shared purpose. For example: “We’re both just trying to get home, right?”
Charm & Niceness: Over-the-top friendliness is used as a tool to manipulate and lower your guard. As de Becker famously states, “Nice is not a credential for good intent.”
Too Many Details: Over-explaining is often a tactic used by liars to make their story sound believable.
Typecasting: A mild insult designed to provoke engagement. For example: “You’re probably too stuck-up to talk to someone like me.”
Loan Sharking: Offering unsolicited help to create a false sense of debt or obligation.
Unsolicited Promises: Promises you didn’t ask for are often a red flag. For example: “I promise I won’t hurt you.”
Refusing to Accept ‘No’: A critical indicator of control-seeking behavior and a blatant boundary violation [2].
The tactical takeaway: Trust your gut. Your intuition is a survival tool honed by millions of years of evolution. If something feels off, it probably is.
Patterns from FBI Crime Data: Understanding the Landscape
While de Becker focuses on the attacker-victim dynamic, the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program provides broader insight into crime trends across the United States [1]. Drawing on data from thousands of agencies, the FBI highlights patterns that can inform your everyday precautions:
Opportunism is Common: Many crimes—especially theft and burglary—are crimes of opportunity. Criminals favor easy targets: unlocked doors, poorly lit areas, or distracted individuals engrossed in their phones [3].
Predictable Routines Are Risky: Attackers often observe habits and patterns. Varying your routes and timing can make you a harder target.
Pre-Offense Behaviors Exist: The FBI’s Behavioral Analysis Unit (BAU) tracks warning signs that often precede violent acts—such as an obsessive interest in weapons, a deteriorating mental state, or viewing violence as the only solution [3].
Recognizing these environmental and behavioral patterns allows civilians to take proactive steps—before a threat materializes.
Insights from Offender Interviews: What Criminals Reveal
Firsthand interviews with convicted offenders—particularly violent ones—provide insight into how they think, what they look for, and why they act.
Common themes from offender psychology include:
Power and Control: Many offenders aren’t driven by impulse but by a desire to dominate. They look for individuals who appear compliant, passive, or easily intimidated.
Minimization and DARVO: Offenders often justify or downplay their actions. The psychological defense mechanism known as DARVO—Deny, Attack, Reverse Victim and Offender—is used to avoid accountability and blame the victim instead [4].
Risk Assessment: Most criminals don’t want a fight. They seek low-risk, high-reward scenarios. This is why projecting confidence and awareness matters—it raises the perceived risk of engaging with you.
These insights aren’t meant to scare—they’re meant to inform your personal strategy.
Tactical Implications: What You Can Do
So, how do you turn this knowledge into action?
🧠 Train Your Mind. Win the Fight.
Develop Situational Awareness: Stay alert, keep your head on a swivel, and scan for unusual behavior. Be mindful of exits, chokepoints, and the behavior of those nearby.
Project Confidence: Predators avoid strong prey. Walk tall. Make eye contact. Appear engaged and aware—even if you're faking it.
Trust Intuition Over Logic: Your instincts are often right before your brain has time to process. If something feels off, disengage or move away.
Set Firm Boundaries: Learn to say “No” without apology or explanation. It’s not rude—it’s survival.
Be Unpredictable: Don’t make your habits easy to track. Vary your routines, routes, and behaviors regularly.
Harden the Target: Invest in physical security—strong locks, motion lights, security cameras. Make your home look like a hard target from the curb.
Final Word: Empowerment Through Awareness
Criminals are students of behavior. So should we be.
By understanding how attackers think—how they assess, select, and approach their victims—we position ourselves to break the pattern, deny opportunity, and stay in control. This isn’t paranoia—it’s preparedness. This is how civilians win the fight before it begins.
📚 Sources & References
[1] FBI’s Crime Data Explorer (CDE): https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/
[2] De Becker, Gavin. The Gift of Fear: Survival Signals That Protect Us from Violence. Little, Brown and Company, 1997.
[3] FBI Behavioral Analysis Unit: https://le.fbi.gov/science-and-lab/behavioral-analysis
[4] Freyd, Jennifer J. “DARVO: Deny, Attack, and Reverse Victim and Offender.” Journal of Trauma & Dissociation, vol. 18, no. 5, 2017, pp. 581–591.
Remember: Awareness is Armour. For more tactical insights, subscribe to Red Dot Mindset.
